How Long Will Petrol & Diesel Repairs Be Needed?
Petrol and diesel vehicles will remain significant for years, but the pool is shrinking. Discover the timeline for ICE repairs and how to plan the transition.
ICE vehicle timeline UK - how long will petrol and diesel repairs be needed
How Long Will Petrol & Diesel Repairs Be Needed?
Petrol and diesel vehicles will remain a significant part of the UK car parc for many years. Despite declining new registrations, the average age of vehicles continues to rise, and millions of ICE cars will still require maintenance well into the 2030s.
This means exhausts, engine servicing, fuel system repairs, turbochargers and emissions-related faults are not disappearing any time soon. For many garages, this work will remain the backbone of day-to-day operations in the short to medium term. Garage management software can help you run and plan that workload efficiently as you balance ICE and future EV work.
The Timeline
ICE vehicles will likely form 50% or more of the UK vehicle fleet until the mid-2030s. Traditional repairs remain viable income for at least another decade.
The Current State of the UK Vehicle Parc
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, there are approximately 33 million vehicles on UK roads. The vast majority are petrol and diesel.
| Fuel Type | Percentage of Fleet | Repair Demand |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol | ~60% | High - largest segment, ageing fleet |
| Diesel | ~30% | High - commercial vehicles, older cars |
| Hybrid (inc. PHEV) | ~7% | Moderate - still have ICE components |
| Battery Electric (BEV) | ~3% | Growing but still small segment |
Key insight: Even though EV registrations are growing, the installed base of ICE vehicles is enormous and slow to turn over.
New Registrations vs. Existing Vehicles
While new petrol and diesel car sales are declining, this does not immediately translate into falling repair demand. The average age of UK vehicles is now over 9 years and rising, meaning older ICE cars are staying on the road longer.
New Sales vs. Existing Fleet
New ICE Sales Declining 📉 New petrol/diesel registrations falling year-on-year. Government targeting 80% zero-emission by 2030.
Existing Fleet Still Large 🔧 Over 30 million ICE vehicles on the road. Average age rising. Many will remain in use until 2035-2040.
This creates a lag effect: garages will continue servicing ICE vehicles for many years even as new sales shift to electric.
What ICE Work Will Remain in Demand?
Traditional engine-focused repairs will continue to generate reliable income through the 2020s and into the 2030s. The most common work includes:
| Repair Type | Demand Outlook | Peak Demand Until |
|---|---|---|
| Oil and filter changes | Gradual decline | ~2032 |
| Exhaust systems | Steady decline from late 2020s | ~2030 |
| Spark plugs, ignition | Moderate demand through 2030s | ~2033 |
| Timing belts, chains | Stable for another decade | ~2035 |
| Turbochargers | Strong demand on ageing diesel fleet | ~2034 |
| Fuel system repairs | Decline accelerates post-2030 | ~2031 |
| DPF and emissions | High demand on diesel through 2030s | ~2035 |
Important: These timelines assume government policy remains on track. Delays to EV mandates would extend ICE repair demand further.
Strategic Planning
Treat ICE work as a declining but still-valuable income stream. Plan to reduce dependency gradually over 10-15 years, not overnight.
The Gradual Decline Timeline
The shift away from ICE repairs will be gradual, not sudden. Here's a realistic timeline:
2026-2030: ICE Work Remains Strong
- New ICE sales still significant (though declining)
- Large ageing fleet requires regular servicing
- Exhausts, brakes, tyres, servicing all high-demand
- Garage impact: Business as usual with early EV adopters
2030-2035: Transition Accelerates
- Government targets 80%+ zero-emission new sales by 2030
- ICE fleet begins to shrink noticeably
- Engine work still common but volumes declining
- Garage impact: EV skills become essential to maintain revenue
2035-2040: ICE Becomes Niche
- Most new vehicles are EV or zero-emission
- ICE fleet increasingly older, lower-value vehicles
- Specialist ICE garages may emerge (like classic car restoration)
- Garage impact: EV work dominates, ICE work is supplementary
The 15-Year Window
Independent garages have roughly 15 years (2026-2040) to transition from ICE-dominant to EV-capable business models. Those planning early will have more options.
Regional Variations
The decline of ICE repairs will not be uniform across the UK:
- Urban areas (London, Manchester, Birmingham) will see faster EV adoption
- Rural areas may retain ICE vehicles longer due to charging infrastructure gaps
- Commercial fleets (vans, lorries) will transition more slowly than private cars
- Lower-income areas will have older ICE vehicles for longer
This means some garages can rely on ICE work longer than others, depending on location and customer base.
What Garage Owners Should Do Now
For independent garages, ICE repairs represent today's reliable income stream, but not tomorrow's growth market.
Strategic actions:
- Maximise ICE income now – Remain excellent at traditional repairs
- Begin EV training gradually – At least one technician should gain Level 2 certification
- Monitor your local market – Track EV adoption in your area
- Diversify income streams – Tyres, MOTs, bodywork are more future-proof
- Plan a 10-year transition – Layer EV capability onto existing ICE expertise
Related article: Will Independent Garages Survive the EV Transition?
Treating ICE work as a cash flow foundation while building EV capability alongside it allows businesses to manage the transition steadily rather than being forced into sudden change.
The garages that plan early will have more control over how that transition unfolds.
The Bottom Line
Petrol and diesel repairs are not vanishing overnight. There will be strong, reliable demand for ICE servicing well into the 2030s, particularly for older vehicles and diesel fleets.
However, relying exclusively on ICE work carries long-term risk. The pool of vehicles needing traditional engine repairs will steadily shrink as EVs become mainstream.
Forward-thinking garages are already treating ICE work as today's revenue stream, while preparing EV capability as tomorrow's core business.
Related reading: What Will Independent Garages Look Like in 2040?
Why Choose AutoChain
Whether you drive a petrol, diesel, hybrid or electric vehicle, AutoChain connects you with trusted independent garages that can service and maintain your car to the highest standards.
Our network covers:
- 🔧 All petrol and diesel servicing and repairs
- ⚡ EV-trained technicians for electric vehicles
- 🚐 Commercial vehicle and van repairs
- 📱 Digital service history for all fuel types
Find a garage near you or learn more about our services.
Related Articles:
- Will Independent Garages Survive the EV Transition?
- What Maintenance and Repairs Do Electric Cars Need?
- EV Training for Independent Garages
- What Will Independent Garages Look Like in 2040?
Data Sources: